Papers of the Week

Our objective was to develop comprehensive national estimates of the total burden of HZ among US adults, including direct (ie, medical costs) and indirect (ie, productivity losses) costs, as well as its psychosocial impact (ie, quality of life losses).Using a patient-level microsimulation model, we projected health and economic outcomes among US adults aged 18 years and older using a 10-year time horizon. We conducted a comprehensive systematic literature review to generate parameter values and conducted simulation modeling to generate our outcomes, including numbers of cases of uncomplicated HZ, postherpetic neuralgia (PHN), and ocular complications, productivity losses, and losses in quality adjusted life years (QALYs). We used a societal perspective for outcomes; the costing year was 2015.Projected outcomes for an unvaccinated population included 1.1 million HZ cases, 114,000 PHN cases, and 43,000 ocular complications annually, resulting in approximately 67,000 QALYs lost. HZ and its complications would incur costs of $2.4 billion in direct medical costs and productivity losses annually.Projected QALY-losses were most sensitive to HZ and PHN health utility values in the model. Cost estimates were most sensitive to the probability of HZ and to the costs per episode of PHN.The national burden of direct, indirect, and psychosocial HZ costs is substantial. Our results can inform economic analyses for HZ vaccines. Comprehensive, national assessments of the total burden of other painful conditions would be very informative.